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Monday, June 29, 2009

Which sports will be added to the 2016 Olympics?

On Monday, seven sports will bid for inclusion on the 2016 Olympic program. Later on this summer, the IOC will select two of those sports to present at the organization's October meeting in Switzerland. The IOC will then vote on whether to include both, one or neither of the sports on the program for the '16 Games.

The IOC is notoriously difficult to read when it comes to votes (just ask Parisians), so it's no surprise that there is little general consensus as to which sports have the best chance to advance to the final round of bidding. We'll take our shot though.

Below are the seven sports that will be making their bids tomorrow, ranked in order of most to least likely to be added to the 26-sport Olympic program. Let it be said that the difference between first and last is razor-thin.

1) Golf -- The IOC loves its stars and Tiger Woods is one of the biggest in the world. Seeing as how golf has already been an Olympic sport (last competed in 1904) and adding it wouldn't require much new infrastructure (golf's bid says that exisiting courses in each bid city can be used), it's a good bet that we could see a medal stand on the 18th green at Medinah (or its Brazilian equivalent) in seven years.

2) Rugby Sevens -- There are three team sports bidding tomorrow and only one of those wasn't dropped from the Olympic program four years ago. That fact, plus the Euro-centric tilt of the IOC (in 2005, 53 of 117 voting members were from European countries) provides a huge boon to the bid of seven-on-seven rugby.

3) Roller Sports -- Call it a hunch, but roller sports (basically, inline skating races) seems to have the makings of an IOC-friendly sport. It will attract younger viewers (at least, that's the thinking), it's cheap (the bid calls for road races) and it's competed over a short time period (three days). The pedigree of rollerblade racing can't touch any of the other six bidding sports, but that didn't stop BMX and trampoline from getting the nod to join the cycling and gymnastics programs, respectively, earlier this decade.

4) Squash -- A member of squash's bid team is Prince Tunku Imran of Malaysia. He also happens to be an IOC member. (So much for putting a stop to conflicts of interest.)

5) Karate -- Q: What's the difference between judo, taekwondo and karate? A: Both you and I don't know, and I doubt IOC members will either.

6) Softball -- The fact that the American women lost this competition in Beijing for the first time in Olympics history can only help the sport's bid. I don't think it will help enough.

7) Baseball -- Unless Major League Baseball can promise that its players will compete in 2016 (a huge stretch), it's difficult to imagine that the IOC will want to reverse its 2005 decision to kick baseball (and softball) off the Olympic program.

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